Okay, let's dive into this week's crypto preview. A bunch of token unlocks are scheduled alongside some interesting ETF inflow data. The question is: does the unlock news matter against the backdrop of ETF momentum? Or are we looking at a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" playing out in slow motion?
Unlock Avalanche vs. ETF Tailwind: A December Dilemma
Token Unlocks: A December Deluge?
First, the unlocks. Sui (SUI) is unlocking a hefty chunk—55.54 million tokens, or 0.56% of the total supply, valued at around $85 million, on December 1st. Ethena (ENA) follows on December 2nd with 95.31 million tokens, 0.64% of the total supply, worth $27.2 million. Then there's Santos FC Fan Token (SANTOS) dropping 19% of its total supply (5.7 million tokens, $12.7 million) on the same day as Sui. Finally, Walrus (WAL) unlocks 32.7 million tokens, valued at $5.5 million. And Jito (JTO) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 7th, representing 1.13% of the total supply, worth approximately $5.4 million.
That's a lot of new supply hitting the market in a short period. Basic economics tells you increased supply, absent a corresponding increase in demand, leads to price depreciation. The stated values are based on *current* prices. The question is, will those prices hold?
Now, here's where it gets interesting. These unlocks are happening against a backdrop of positive ETF news. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $71.371 million yesterday, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows. Ark Invest and 21Shares' ARKB ETF led the charge with $88.044 million in inflows, while Fidelity's FBTC followed with $77.4532 million. BlackRock's IBIT, however, saw a net outflow of $114 million. (A blip or a trend? We'll see.)
VanEck is even predicting a crypto bull market to persist through 2025, with Bitcoin potentially hitting $180,000 and Ethereum exceeding $6,000. They also anticipate a 30% retracement in BTC after that initial peak. Seems optimistic, but they've got a decent track record (scoring 8.5 out of 15 on their 2024 predictions).
ETF Demand vs. Unlock Supply: A December Showdown
ETF Flows vs. Unlock Dilution: The Real Battle
So, here's the core tension: new supply from token unlocks versus new demand from ETF inflows. Which force will be stronger?
It's tempting to simply look at the dollar amounts. Say, $85 million in SUI unlocks versus, maybe, $50 million in average daily ETF inflows. But that's too simplistic. The *rate* of absorption matters. Can ETFs consistently absorb the selling pressure from these unlocks? And what about the sentiment? Are traders already pricing in these unlocks?
dYdX community approved a one-month pilot program for liquidation rebates, starting December 1st. Aster has announced the Season 3 airdrop schedule: the inspector will open on December 1st, and tokens can be claimed on December 15th. Syndicate will launch Epoch 2 on December 1st at 7:00 AM. CME Group and CF Benchmarks will launch two new Bitcoin volatility indices on December 2nd. Aztec Network will launch a public auction of AZTEC tokens on December 2nd. Pandu Ethereum ETF will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 3, allowing users to directly hold ETH. HumidiFi's WET token will be issued on December 3rd via the Jupiter DTF platform. The Dubai Blockchain Week 2025 will be held from December 3rd to 4th. The SEC Investor Advisory Committee held an online meeting on December 4 to discuss corporate governance and stock tokenization. Binance Leverage will remove several trading pairs, including WAXP/BTC, SXP/BTC, and ONT/BTC, on December 4th. Ethereum Foundation: The Fusaka upgrade is expected to be activated on the mainnet at 05:49 Beijing time on December 4th. The US September PCE report has been rescheduled to December 5th, and the preliminary Q3 GDP report has been cancelled. Upbit has recovered approximately $30.43 million in stolen funds; South Korean regulators will conduct an on-site investigation until December 5th. The second season of YZi Labs' Easy Residency incubation program will end on December 5th. The community airdrop of Aria Protocol's native token, $ARIAIP, will end on December 7th. Uniswap's "UNIFICATION" proposal has passed preliminary approval, and formal on-chain voting is expected to begin next week.
And this is the part of the analysis where I find myself slightly skeptical of the "easy money" narrative. Sure, ETFs are bringing in new capital, but they're also attracting attention. And attention, especially in crypto, can be fickle. Will the average retail investor understand the nuances of token unlocks? Or will they simply see a headline about "millions of tokens being released" and panic sell?
It's also worth noting that VanEck’s 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025, while interesting, should be taken with a grain of salt. They predict the value of tokenized securities will exceed $50 billion in 2025. Currently, there's ~$12B worth of tokenized securities on blockchains, with the majority ($9.5B) being tokenized private credit securities listed on the Figure’s semi-permissioned blockchain called Provenance. Projecting a 4x increase in a single year feels…ambitious.
The Market's About to Get a Reality Check
Ultimately, December could be a pivotal month for crypto. If ETFs can consistently absorb the selling pressure from token unlocks, it will be a strong signal of institutional adoption and price stability. If not, we could see a significant correction, reminding everyone that even in a bull market, supply and demand still matter.
Avaxsignals Published on2025-12-01 12:37:06 Views3 Comments0
